An insider’s view of the media hegemony

CISPA Passes House, But I See Reasons For Optimism — Lessons From 2006 And How to COPE With A House Defeat.

By Harold | April 27, 2012

In the face of a remarkably successful public outcry, the House Republican leadership moved up the vote on the Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act (CISPA) by a full day and amended it to make it even more awful. While obviously not a good thing, I see a lot of positive signs for the future fight.

Why? Because CISPA backers faced serious signs of opposition — enough so that they moved up the vote to avoid further R defections. By the end of yesterday, the number of Rs committed to opposition had grown from 2 (Barton and Paul) to 28. That sounds small, but the trend was rapidly accelerating in the wake of the Tea Party uprising on this. Meanwhile, the White House veto threat combined with the civil liberties outcry from the left help shore up Democratic resistance. While it did not prove sufficient to prevail in this round, it will prove extremely important as we roll on to the Senate.

In many ways, the situation here reminds me of when Congress considered the Communications Opportunity Enhancement Act of 2006 (COPE). Among other things, COPE would have prohibited the FCC from adopting significant Net Neutrality rules (which everyone at the time actually assumed the FCC had the authority to do, so opponents wanted legislation to limit that authority). Almost exactly six years ago, we suffered a similar defeat in the House. Then, as now, I saw good reasons for optimism that we will ultimately prevail. In fact, our situation then was much weaker than the situation now.

I explore some of the reasons to believe that we can continue to ramp up the fight against CISPA in the Senate and ultimately prevent passage of either CISPA or its equally- nasty-but-for-different-reasons Senate version, the Cybersecurity Act of 2012. (While I appreciate the White House veto threat, I prefer not to rely on it.). But before I dig into any detail, let me repeat what I said 6 years ago when COPE passed out of Committee despite the effort of grassroots activists on the left and right to stop it:

There’s a lesson here . . . . YOU CAN’T OUTSOURCE CITIZENSHIP. You can’t let “the tech companies” or even “the consumer advocates” or anyone speak for you. Citizenship carries responsibilities that go beyond the ritual of voting every two years. But when citizens wake up and speak up, and speak to each other, they find — to their surprise — they are strong. They find they have power. And they find that being a citizen may take hard work, but it is so, so, SO much better and more satisfying than being a couch potato. As the great Jewish sage Hillel said: “If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If I am only for myself, who am I? If not me then who? If not now, when?”

More on the current situation below . . . .

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Also posted in Censorship Public and Private, How Democracy Works, Or Doesn't, Life In The Sausage Factory | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Verizon/SpectrumCo: Spectrum Gap v. Spectrum Crunch, Why Competition Is Actually Worse Off If Verizon Swaps AWS For 700 MHz (Part III)

By Harold | April 23, 2012

For those just joining, Part I recounted how Verizon suddenly encountered unusually strong headwinds in its effort to acquire AWS-1 spectrum from the cable consortium known as SpectrumCo (Comcast, Time Warner Cable, and Bright House) along with the AWS-1 spectrum that Cox Cable took when it broke up with SpectrumCo back in ’08 (you can get all the details on the deal and I why don’t like it from my Insanely Long Field Guide to the Verizon/SpectrumCo deal ). In Part II, I explained how Verizon’s proposed private auction of its Lower 700 MHz A&B block licenses would not resolve the problems with the proposed deal because (a) it wouldn’t address the three side agreements that make this look too much like the foundation of a cartel among the major broadband, video and voice providers; and, (b) AT&T would most likely end up acquiring the licenses.

Now let us assume for the sake of argument that AT&T would not bid for the Verizon Lower 700 MHz licenses. Would that make everything OK?

Sadly, no. Even without AT&T winning the licenses, letting Verizon acquire the SpectrumCo/Cox AWS licenses will massively aggravate the spectrum gap between Verizon and its competitors, while doing little to alleviate the spectrum crunch for competitors. Marguerite Reardon does an excellent job explaining why here, but I cannot help but add a few more wonky details below . . . .

 

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Also posted in Spectrum | Leave a comment

Verizon/SpectrumCo Spectrum Gap v. Spectrum Crunch — Verizon’s Brilliant Aikido Move (Part II)

By Harold | April 23, 2012

When last we left our story, the good folks at Verizon had recognized that the FCC’s concerns around spectrum concentration, the “spectrum gap” between AT&T and Verizon and everyone else, had grown exponentially in the last few months as it looked like the “spectrum crunch” (the general lack of new spectrum for all wireless providers in the face of increasing mobile data use) would continue for the foreseeable future. Yes, the “spectrum crunch” increases the desire to get spectrum into productive use (for example, by moving it from cable companies who can’t figure out what to do with it to Verizon). But it also makes spectrum a zero-sum game, where any gain to Verizon or AT&T translates directly to a loss by all other competitors. At this point, the spectrum gap has become so large that conferring any further advantage to Verizon (or AT&T) threatens the ability of any rival to offer competing services.

Faced with this change in the environment, Verizon announced last week that it would auction off its Lower 700 MHz A&B block licenses to competitors (including AT&T, natch) if it got the AWS spectrum from Spectrumco and Cox. Verizon explained on its Q1 results call for analysts that no one had forced it to offer these divestitures, but that if it got the AWS spectrum, Verizon would no longer need the capacity from these licenses. To translate: “we’re not spectrum hoarding, but if we get what we want from SpectrumCo we won’t need the super-duper wonderful 700 MHz spectrum we picked up at auction in 2008, so we will sell them off and make more spectrum available for our competitors.”

As I explain below, this is an utterly brilliant Aikido move by Verizon. Unfortunately, it doesn’t address the key problem with the transaction — the three side agreements between Verizon and its cable competitors to team up in a variety of ways — that make this look an awful lot like a would-be cartel. Even if we set that aside, as other folks have also noticed, the most likely winner of any private auction Verizon would hold for its Lower 700 MHz A&B blocks would be AT&T. Letting AT&T bug Verizon’s Lower 700 MHz A&B licenses would make the spectrum gap much, much worse.

More below . . . .

 

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Verizon/SpectrumCo: The Spectrum Concentration Gap v. The Spectrum Crunch (Why VZ’s 700 MHz Divestiture Offer Doesn’t Help) Part I

By Harold | April 23, 2012

Verizon has clearly studied everything AT&T did wrong last year when it tried to acquire T-Mobile. That includes staying alert for early signs of trouble and taking preemptive moves to keep the course of approval running smoothly. It also includes showing grace under fire rather than trying to browbeat the FCC into submission. To head off concerns about the growing “spectrum gap” between Verizon (and AT&T) and its competitors, Verizon has offered to sell its Lower 700 MHz A&B block licenses in a private auction if the FCC grants the application to transfer the AWS-1 spectrum to it from Spectrumco.

At the same time, Verizon also insists that it is doing this of its own free will and not because the FCC is making it do so or because it has run into any trouble. As I will explain, I believe Verizon is telling the truth. The 700 MHz A&B block licenses Verizon promises to auction to competitors is not nearly as useful to it as the AWS-1 spectrum it will get from Spectrumco and Cox. Given that everyone has extolled the virtues of the 700 MHz spectrum as the most important, game changing super-duper useful for mobile broadband spectrum in the entire universe, and since the licenses in question do cover some major markets, that no doubt comes as a surprise to many. Indeed, rather like the stereotypical used car salesman offering to swap your beat up lemon for his hardly ever driven luxury cream puff, this offer looks too good to be true. Why would Verizon want to swap Magic Elixir 700 MHz spectrum for Totally Awesome But Not Magic AWS-1 spectrum?

Below, I give a run-down of my guesses as to why Verizon decided to make a preemptive offer to divest when so many experts opined this would sail through without serious problems. I also explain why, despite the real virtues of the 700 MHz spectrum, Verizon has good reason to want to ditch these licenses (and was already starting to sell them off before the Spectrumco deal). Finally, I’ll explain why, IMO, this doesn’t address the fundamental problems of the VZ/Spectrumco deal because (a) it doesn’t address the side agreements that make this look like the formation of a cartel; (b) for reasons I have explained at length before, AT&T is the most likely winner of any “private auction” Verizon will hold; and, (c) even if AT&T were excluded from getting the licenses, the Spectrum Gap will actually be worse, not better, as a result of the transaction.

In chess terms, Verizon is offering to sacrifice two pawns to gain a queen. Hopefully, the FCC will resist the invitation and avoid a Fool’s Mate for competition.

Because this ended up being rather long, I’ve divided it into three parts. Part I explains how the spectrum situation changed dramatically in just a few months, so that concern about the Spectrum Gap, the difference in spectrum between the two largest providers and all other wireless providers, came to have such increased significance in the FCC’s thinking. This prompted Verizon to make public what it already planned to do, ditch the 700 MHz A&B blocks, despite the fact that this leaves them open to accusations of spectrum warehousing during the pendency of the Spectrumco/Cox deal.

In Part II, I explain why AT&T will likely win the licenses (a conclusion others have reached as well), absent some condition by the FCC to keep AT&T out of the private auction (which I consider politically unlikely). Part III explains why, even if AT&T were excluded from the private auction for Verizon’s Lower 700 MHz A&B licenses, it still would aggravate the spectrum gap. Since the transaction would make competition worse off post-transaction (and fail to address the whole ‘cartel’ thing), the FCC should still deny the application for transfer.

More below . . . .

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The Day The Public Interest Died: Media Access Project Shuts Its Doors After 40 Years of Public Service

By Harold | April 3, 2012

Outside of our small world of telecom wonkery, few will notice that my old employer, The Media Access Project, announced that it will cease operations on May 1. After 40 years of fighting to protect the public interest, including playing a pivotal role in stoping the deregulation of media ownership rules in 2003 and training a generation of public interest advocates, MAP ran out of money. In fact, according to the email, it will need to hold a fundraiser to retire its debt.

I know I should take this opportunity to eulogize MAP as an institution and sing the praises of its leader for the past 35 or so years, Andrew Jay Schwartzman. But I need to vent first. All you Liberals and Progressives with Serious Money who piss and moan about how the Koch Brothers and other conservatives with money have transformed this country by funding all kinds of conservative advocacy groups and think tanks — shut up. I was at MAP for 9 years and it was incredibly, painfully difficult to get people to understand why having a law firm in DC to advocate for the right policy at the Federal Communications Commission or bring cases challenging these arcane policy issues like how many television stations can one company own or whether we should allow Comcast to block BitTorrent and other peer-to-peer applications mattered. Many potential funders were too pure to fund anything that looked too much like inside the Beltway advocacy.

If you don’t fund progressive advocacy, it dies. If you are too pure to fight inside the Beltway, you lose. You cede the battlefield to folks who care a lot less about being chaste and pure and above the fray and who care a lot more about persuading policymakers and the country to adopt their vision of what’s right. So either pony up with the cash or get the policy you deserve. But please do not bitch about how awful it is that people with a vison for America you find revolting are willing to spend “their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honors” succeed while you prattle on about not wanting to “create dependencies” and how advocates need to find “sustainable models for funding” other than relying on funders — while simultaneously not compromising themselves by taking corporate money.

OK, enough ranting.  Some personal reminiscences and appreciations below . . . .

 

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Also posted in General, Life In The Sausage Factory | 6 Comments

Trayvon Martin and Toulouse

By Harold | March 23, 2012

This is not telecom. But for the reasons I explain below, I have been struggling for days with the twin tragedies of the killing of Trayvon Martin and the killing of three Jewish children, a Rabbi, and three French soldiers in Toulouse. For me, they are inextricably linked.

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Also posted in General | 8 Comments

My Insanely Long Field Guide To The Verizon/SpectrumCo/Cox Deal.

By Harold | March 22, 2012

The more I look, poke and prod at the VZ/SpectrumCo/Cox deal the more convinced I am that this becomes one of the defining moments in telecom for 2012 – possibly for the foreseeable future. If AT&T/T-Mo represented the last stand for traditional antitrust , VZ/SpectrumCo represents the new frontier. Where AT&T was a frontal assault on antitrust by accumulating marketshare and spectrum, this hits antitrust up its blind side with collaborative agreements and fundamental questions about when can competitors decide to abandon entire markets to one another. Just about everything single issue in telecom – spectrum aggregation, video distribution, the nature of competition in the age of convergence, the interaction of antitrust and patent technology –  all come together in one package so amazingly complicated and wonky that average Americans will fall asleep while you explain it to them.

So, with the help of some incredibly lame innuendos to spice things up a bit, I attempt to explain below . . . . .

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Also posted in Cable, Media Ownership, Spectrum | 1 Comment

Spectrum Efficiency v. Competition Part II: Why Do Verizon and AT&T Keep Ending Up With All The Spectrum?

By Harold | March 15, 2012

Recently, I talked about the tension between spectrum efficiency and competition policy in auctions.  Briefly, for reasons I will elaborate below, the largest wireless providers (AT&T and Verizon) can extract more value out of a wireless license than their significantly smaller rivals (especially when we include the foreclosure value of keeping the license out of the hands of competitors). As a result, we should expect over time that the biggest wireless companies will eventually have an unbeatable edge in wireless capacity unless the FCC takes some measures to balance out the spectrum holdings.

Not surprisingly, the same problem surfaces when companies buy spectrum licenses from each other.  After all, a license transfer is essentially a private auction (only with less transparency and higher transaction cost – factors that work in favor of the largest companies). We should therefore expect to see the same tension around spectrum efficiency and concern for competition policy play out in license transfers.

Two recent transactions put these concerns in stark relief: AT&T’s recent acquisition of spectrum from Qualcomm and Verizon’s proposed  acquisition of licenses from Spectrumco. Both cases arguably represent an improvement in spectrum efficiency by moving the licenses from those who were ultimately unable (or unwilling) to use them efficiently to those able to pay the most for them (and therefore, presumably, extract the greatest value). At the same time, however, the transfers aggravate the existing spectrum imbalance between the largest wireless providers and competitors.

I explore the trade offs posed by these transactions, and discuss how they are essentially another version of the same spectrum efficiency v. competition policy I discussed in auctions, below . . .

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Also posted in Spectrum | 2 Comments

But Why Time Warner Cable’s Bandwidth Cap May Be A Good Thing. See How Complicated This Is?

By Harold | February 28, 2012

So no sooner do I cast a very suspicious eye over AT&T Wireless’ new scheme to allow ap developers to pay the overage charges for users who exceed their 2 GB monthly cap when I see that Time Warner Cable (TWC) is now offering an “Internet Essentials” plan in some test markets in Texas. Customers who opt into the new 5GB/month metered plan will receive a discount. TWC also includes a meter so customers can monitor their use. Finally, customers in the metered plan can easily pay more to get more access.

While this is just a first reaction based on the TWC description, I have to say this is the kind of “metered usage” program I really like. In fact, this looks like an excellent product offering (albeit not for an ‘power user’ like myself.). I salute TWC for listening to its customers and offering something different and innovative.

So what’s so good about this metered program but I remain suspicious of other “usage based billing plans? I answer below . . .

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Also posted in Series of Tubes, Spectrum | Leave a comment

AT&T Poised To Fulfill Ed Whitacre’s Vision? Charging Aps For Customers and The Future of Wireless.

By Harold | February 28, 2012

It has been just over 6 years since Ed Whitacre, then CEO of AT&T, kicked off the Network Neutrality movement by famously declaring that rival services would not “use my pipes for free,” neatly side stepping the fact that customers were actually paying to “use [his] pipes” already. Because why just collect money from one side of a platform when you can collect the same money again from the other side? Well, it appears that AT&T may finally be on the verge of realizing Whitacre’s vision — at least for the wireless world. While details remain sparse, the Wall St. Journal broke a story yesterday that AT&T may “allow” application providers to pay the overage charges for customers who exceed AT&T’s arbitrary “bandwidth cap.” As my colleague John Bergmeyer pointed out over at Public Knowledge there is not much functional difference between simply charging both sides of the platform directly and  giving you the first 2 GB/month and then charging you for access.

I first wrote about the problem of “Whitacre Tiering” (having a “slow lane” for the “public internet” and a “fast lane/Quality of Service (QoS)” for favored content) in the wireline context almost 6 years ago today, back when AT&T (and other supporters of such schemes) used “the exaflood” as the reason why we absolutely positively must charge service providers to reach broadband subscribers. Remember the “exaflood,” the prediction that our broadband systems would crash under the ever-rising flood of data as users, unconstrained by metered pricing, outstripped the capacity of broadband systems? Except, of course, it didn’t happen. Cable operators developed DOCSIS 3.0, DSL providers figured out how to do better, and those stuck with ruinous backhaul charges figured out other ways to manage their networks (generally in cooperation with users).

Moving to the wireless universe, we find ourselves with similar arguments that we faced six years ago — including the wireless version of the “exaflood.” Below, I consider whether the arguments for wireless make any better sense than they did when Whitacre proposed it for wireline back in October 2005.

More below . . . .

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Also posted in Series of Tubes, Spectrum | Leave a comment

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